CRICKETS AND KETTLE DRUMS

The bpisports.com column WHERE THE GLASS IS ALWAYS HALF-EMPTY

#5 - UNORIGINAL SIX

BY TREVOR W. RILEY

JUNE 1, 2010

Most people are familiar with the NHL's original six teams: the Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings, Montreal Canadiens, New York Rangers, and Toronto Maple Leafs. Not surprisingly, those teams won 45 of 46 Stanley Cups from 1928 to 1973, including 38 in a row. Let's also not forget that for a great number of those years, they were the only six teams in the league as well.

Would you believe me if I told you that the NBA has a hexagon of misfits that are nearly as successful in the present day?

Well you should because it's true. Three nomads that sprung up in Minneapolis (Lakers - 9), Fort Wayne (Pistons - 3), and San Diego (Rockets - 2), a city that couldn't hold a team until its 3rd try (Chicago Bulls - 6; Stags and Packers, previously), a team from some podunk basketball league with a red, white, and blue ball (San Antonio Spurs - 4), and the pillared Celtics (4) in Boston will have won 29 out of the last 31 NBA Championships (26 out of the last 27) at the end of the 2010 NBA Finals.

I sought and tried to put these numbers in sexier terms, but in the end, I decided to keep the pre-calculus textbook at bay, for all of our benefit. Quite simply put, over the last 31 NBA seasons, these six teams have had an average 22.30% (186 chances out of 834 team seasons) chance of winning the NBA title in any given season, and they've accomplished this feat 93.55% of the time. Conversely, the other 24 teams are 2-20 in the NBA Finals during this stretch; the only two spoilers were the 1983 Philadelphia 76ers who swept the Lakers and the 2006 Miami Heat, who defeated the Dallas Mavericks 4 games to 2.

Some folks out there will say that this isn't really as impressive as I'm making it seem, citing facts about large media markets, gold medal superstars, and the fact that many of these teams were favored anyway. Those are all good points, but this wasn't even happening in the NBA back when it was much more probable.

From 1947 to 1976, five teams won 26 out of 30 championships (Celtics - 13, Lakers - 6, Warriors - 3, 76ers - 2, Knicks - 2). Despite having almost double the total opportunity of their present day counterparts (145 chances out of 343 team seasons; 42.27%), these five still won a lesser percentage of championships, at 86.67%. If you're wondering why a 6th team wasn't added in this comparison, it was because no other team won multiple titles during the timeframe. One also has to remember that teams were much easier to keep together throughout this era, as the modern salary cap rules were enacted for the 1984-85 season. There were salary caps before, but they didn't create as much competitive balance as the current cap setup does.

Regardless of which team wins the 2010 NBA Finals, part of me will be satisfied because the trend/anomaly continues....so much for me not being stat trendy. I won't be making an official prediction on this series, however I am rooting for Herm Schaefer to defeat Dutch Garfinkel (by the reverse difference in total letters, ironically enough), and if this does happen, I will undoubtedly have another CNKD nugget for you.

Well that's a wrap for column 4, episode 5 of CNKD. If you have any comments, questions, suggestions, or other feedback, feel free to send them along via email to cnkd2010@aol.com. There's 5 down and 999,995 to go. Peace.